Exclusive: Internal Poll Shows David Trott Defeating U.S. Rep. Kerry Bentivolio in MI-11 GOP Primary
An internal poll shows attorney David Trott with a double-digit lead over U.S. Rep. Kerry Bentivolio (R-Milford) in the GOP primary for the 11th Congressional District seat.
The live-operator survey taken last week by North Carolina-based National Research Inc., was obtained by Inside Michigan Politics. IMP made the call to run the poll because of the lack of public polling in the race and the pollster’s record. Former New York Times analyst Nate Silver ranked National Research near the top his list of accurate polling firms in the 2012 cycle.
Trott had 33% to Bentivolio’s 19%, giving him a 14-point lead for the Aug. 5 primary.
This GOP primary is one of the most watched in the country. Bentivolio was elected with Tea Party support in 2012 as the only Republican on the ballot after then U.S. Rep. Thad McCotter (R-Livonia) resigned amidst a petition-gathering scandal. He’s been vastly outraised by Trott, an attorney and longtime GOP fundraiser, who also has earned many high-profile endorsements.
. . . But Bentivolio will “have a very difficult time” winning their votes, according to a memo written by Adam Geller of National Research and Stu Sandler of Decider Strategies, a consultant for Trott.
When the pollster included voters leaning to one candidate or the other, Trott’s lead grew to 39% to 21% for Bentivolio.
. . . On June 6, 2013, Trott had 8% and Bentivolio had 29%. On May 1, 2014, Trott earned 21% and Bentivolio 30%. On May 22, 2014, the candidates were statistically tied, with Trott at 22% and Bentivolio at 23%.
Trott’s favorables in the most recent poll were 30% favorable to 16% unfavorable. Bentivolio’s were nearly evenly split, 28% favorable to 25% unfavorable.
. . . The internal Trott survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters in the MI-11 was conducted between June 23 and 24, 2014. The margin of error was 4.9%.